Palomba's estimate is based on stock-movement analysis, not sales data from Rockstar or Take-Two. Take-Two shares rose about 3 percent in early trading the morning pre-orders went live. Palomba modeled what that gain implies in revenue terms and landed on roughly $1 billion for the first 60 minutes. GameRant, Collider, Yahoo Finance, and UniLad Tech all reported the analysis. For comparison, Grand Theft Auto V needed three full days after launch to reach its first billion dollars in sales.
Take-Two has released no official pre-order figures and has not commented on Palomba's estimate. The first real numbers are expected in August, when the company holds its Q1 FY2027 earnings call. That report will cover the period in which pre-orders opened and should give a clearer picture of how the game is tracking ahead of the November 19 launch.
A separate viral claim put first-day pre-orders at 39 million copies and $3 billion in revenue. Multiple outlets debunked it as misinformation with no credible sourcing. Palomba's $1 billion figure is the estimate worth watching. It has a named source, a clear methodology, and it is still an inference from public market data rather than anything Rockstar or Take-Two has confirmed.